Beschreibung Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ~ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction / Tetlock, Philip E., Gardner, Dan / ISBN: 9780804136716 / Kostenloser Versand fĂŒr alle BĂŒcher mit Versand und Verkauf duch .
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ~ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction / Tetlock, Philip E., Gardner, Dan / ISBN: 9780804136693 / Kostenloser Versand fĂŒr alle BĂŒcher mit Versand und Verkauf duch .
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ~ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction / Tetlock, Philip, Gardner, Dan / ISBN: 0787721973942 / Kostenloser Versand fĂŒr alle BĂŒcher mit Versand und Verkauf duch .
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ~ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction / Tetlock, Philip E., Gardner, Dan, Richards, Joel / ISBN: 0191091263914 / Kostenloser Versand fĂŒr alle BĂŒcher .
[PDF] Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ~ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction @inproceedings{Tetlock2015SuperforecastingTA, title={Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction}, author={P. Tetlock and D. Gardner}, year={2015} } P. Tetlock, D. Gardner; Published 2015; Engineering; A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's .
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction [ebook ~ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction [ebook] by Philip E. Tetlock (epub/mobi) ebook4expert. October 7 2015 . Professional Science; Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weekâs meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip .
Super Forecasting The Art And Science Of Prediction Epub ~ Free download ebook DOWNLOAD EBOOK Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction FULL FOR KINDLE Get now A New Y. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a book by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner released in 2015. It details findings from The Good Judgment Project.. On Mar 1, 2016 Edward M. Roche published: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. By Philip .
Superforecasting â Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose ~ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Philip Tetlock . 4,4 von 5 Sternen 894. Taschenbuch. 9,12 ⏠Das unendliche Spiel: Strategien fĂŒr dauerhaften Erfolg Simon Sinek. 4,5 von 5 Sternen 41. Gebundene Ausgabe. 24,99 ⏠Narren des Zufalls: Die unterschĂ€tzte Rolle des Zufalls in unserem Leben Nassim Nicholas Taleb. 4,2 von 5 Sternen 75. Taschenbuch. 9,99 ⏠Weiter. Es wird kein .
Superforecasting - Esoteric Library ~ Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction / Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner. pages cm 1. Economic forecasting. 2. Forecasting. I. Gardner, Dan, 1968â II. Title. HB3730.T47 2015 303.49âdc23 2015007310 ISBN 9780804136693 eBook ISBN 9780804136709 Illustrations by Joe LeMonnier Cover design by Christopher Brand v4.1 a. Jenny, alive forever in the hearts of your mother and father, as .
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ~ Buy Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction on FREE SHIPPING on qualified orders . or download a FREE Kindle Reading App. Videos. Page 1 of 1 Start Over Page 1 of 1. Previous page . Videos for this product. 0:08 . Click to play video . Customer Review: A master-key for debunking accepted myths and a roadmap to a 'better' result . Tony J. Ridley. Next page. Upload your .
Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner: Superforecasting (eBook epub ~ Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner: Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction. Sprache: Englisch. (eBook epub) - bei eBook
Superforecasting The Art And Science Of Prediction English ~ 'superforecasting the art and science of prediction may 25th, 2020 - superforecasting is the most important scientific study i ve ever read on prediction cass r sunstein the bloomberg view just as modern medicine began when a farsighted few began to collect data and keep track of
Superforecasting - Wharton School Press ~ Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 âThe most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahnemanâs Thinking, Fast and Slow.â âJason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching .
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Superforecasting (eBook, ePUB) von Philip Tetlock; Dan ~ Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _____ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Um Ihnen ein besseres Nutzererlebnis zu bieten, verwenden wir Cookies. Durch die Nutzung von bĂŒcher stimmen Sie der Verwendung von Cookies und unserer Datenschutzrichtlinie zu.
'Superforecasting' von 'Philip Tetlock' - 'Taschenbuch ~ Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner. Leseprobe. Buch (Taschenbuch, Englisch) Buch (Taschenbuch, Englisch) 9, 19 ⏠bisher 9, 99 ⏠Sie sparen : 8 % .
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Superforecasting von Philip E. Tetlock - Taschenbuch - 978 ~ Superforecasting is new, and includes a compendium of best practices for prediction⊠The accuracy that ordinary people regularly attained through their meticulous application did amaze me⊠[It offers] us all an opportunity to understand and react more intelligently to the confusing world around us.â â New York Times Book Review
Superforecasting (Hörbuch Download) von Philip Tetlock ~ In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events .
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ~ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a book by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner released in 2015. It details findings from The Good Judgment Project. Reviews. The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that .
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Superforecasting The Art And Science Of Prediction PDF ~ dan isbn 9780804136716 kostenloser versand fur alle bucher mit versand und verkauf duch superforecasting the art and science of prediction paperback illustrated september 13 2016 by philip e tetlock author dan gardner author superforcasting the art of science and prediction by philip e tetlock is a book about the art and science of statistical prediction and its everyday uses except it .
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